Population-wide long-term study of incidence, renal failure, and mortality rates for lupus nephritis

Given limited regional data, we investigate the state-wide epidemiology, renal and patient outcomes for lupus nephritis (LN) in Western Australia (WA).

Patients hospitalized with incident SLE (≥2 diagnostic codes in the state-wide WA Health Hospital Morbidity Data Collection) in the period 1985-2015 were included (n = 1480). LN was defined by the presence of glomerulonephritis and/or raised serum creatinine. Trends over three study decades for annual incidence rate (AIR)/100.000 population, mortality (MR), and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) rates/100 person years were analyzed by least square regression and compared with a matched control group (n = 12 840).

Clinical evidence of LN developed in 366 SLE patients (25.9%) after a median disease duration of 10 months (IQR 0-101) with renal biopsy performed in 308 (84.2%). The AIR for LN (0.63/100.000) did not change significantly over time (R²  = .11, p = .85), while point prevalence reached 11.9/100.000 in 2015. ESRD developed in 14.1% (n = 54) of LN patients vs. 0.2% in non-LN SLE patients and 0.05% in controls (all p ≤ 0.01). ESRD rates increased over time in LN patients (0.4 to 0.7, R² = .52, p = .26). The odds ratio for death was 8.81 (CI 3.78-22.9) for LN and 6.62 (CI 2.76-17.9) for non-LN SLE patients compared to controls and MR for LN patients increased over time (1.3 to 2.2, R² = .84, p = .26).

The incidence rate of LN in WA remained unchanged over 30 years. A lack of improvement in renal failure and mortality rates illustrates the pressing need for better long-term treatment options and/or strategies in LN.