Analysing spatio-temporal drought characteristics and copula-based return period in Indian Gangetic Basin (1901-2021)
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Droughts in India's Gangetic Plain are becoming more frequent and severe, especially after 1965. This study analyzed drought patterns using the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and found increasing trends in drought duration and severity, impacting agriculture.
Area Of Science
- Climatology and Agricultural Meteorology
- Hydrological Sciences
- Statistical Modeling
Background
- Monsoonal rainfall variability poses significant risks to crop production in India's Indo-Gangetic Plain.
- Understanding drought patterns is crucial for agricultural planning and water resource management.
Purpose Of The Study
- To investigate the spatio-temporal patterns of drought characteristics (frequency, duration, severity, intensity) in the Indian Gangetic basin.
- To analyze drought trends and their implications for agriculture in the region.
- To apply bivariate copula methods for modeling drought severity and duration.
Main Methods
- Analysis of India Meteorological Department (IMD) precipitation data from 1901-2021.
- Application of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) at various timescales.
- Utilizing run theory to analyze drought characteristics.
- Employing bivariate copula methods (elliptical and Archimedean families) to model drought severity and duration.
Main Results
- Seasonal droughts are more frequent and intense in the Upper and Middle Gangetic Plain.
- Significant downward drought trends were observed after 1965, particularly in the Upper, Middle, and Trans Gangetic Plain regions.
- Droughts with longer durations and higher severities exhibit increased return periods, with a notable rise in 100+ year return period droughts after 1960, especially post-2000.
Conclusions
- The study provides critical agroclimatic zone-specific information on drought occurrence and characteristics in the Indian Ganga Basin.
- Findings enhance the understanding of drought dynamics, aiding in the development of effective drought management and adaptive strategies.
- The research highlights the increasing threat of severe droughts in key agricultural areas, necessitating proactive mitigation measures.
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