Exploring the driving forces and scenario analysis for catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures in Iran

The extent of healthcare expenditure within households stands as a crucial indicator in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). When out-of-pocket healthcare expenses surpass household income or become unduly burdensome, it serves as a significant socio-economic alarm, resulting in a reduced quality of life, a phenomenon referred to as 'catastrophic health expenditure (CHE).' Multiple factors can contribute to the occurrence of CHE. The study's objective was to identify the key uncertainties and driving forces influencing CHE to develop scenarios in Iran on the horizon of 2030.

This study was conducted between December 2021 and January 2023, data were collected through a literature review, and experts' opinions were gathered via questionnaires, interviews, and expert panels. The statistical population included experts in the fields of health policy, health economics, and futures studies. Scenario Wizard software and MICMAC analysis were employed for data analysis, providing valuable insights into potential future scenarios of health expenditures in Iran.

Based on the results of the scoping review and semi-structured interview, 65 key factors in the fields of economics, politics, technology, social, and environmental were identified. The findings of the MICMAC analysis presented 10 key variables. Finally, six main scenario spaces are depicted using Scenario Wizard. These scenarios included catastrophic cost crises, sanction relief, selective information access, technological ambiguity, induced demand management, and incremental reforms.

Each of the six drawn scenarios provides images of the future of health expenditure in Iranian households on the horizon of 2030. The worst-case scenario from all scenarios was scenario one, with the most probable and critical features to derive Iran's health expenditures. The current study is a valuable addition to the literature depicting the key drivers that all developing nations can consider to decrease exposing households to catastrophic and impoverishing health expenditures.