Spatial epidemiological analysis of the burden of liver cancer in China

Liver cancer is one of the most common cancers in the world, with unique regional variations in disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, nearly 50% of liver cancer cases occur in China. Therefore, understanding the epidemiological characteristics of liver cancer is of utmost importance. In this study, to analyze the spatial distribution characteristics and clustering of the DALY rate of liver cancer in 1990 and 2017 in China based on provincial administrative divisions, and to explore its possible influencing factor.

The DALY rate data of liver cancer at the provincial level in China were collected, the global autocorrelation of the DALY rate was analyzed by Moran's I, the local autocorrelation of the DALY rate was analyzed by Getis-Ord-Gi*, and the influencing factors related to the DALY rate were analyzed by the least squares regression model.

The DALY rate of liver cancer in China generally showed an increasing trend. The DALY rate increased in 22 provinces and decreased in nine provinces. In 2017, the distribution of DALY rate in all provinces showed heterogeneity, with the highest DALY rate in Guangxi (1,363.37/100,000) and the lowest in Beijing (315.78/100,000). In 2017, the low and low clustering were mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Shanxi, Hebei, and Tianjin. The low and high clustering in Yunnan, Guizhou, and Guangdong, were surrounded by the high clustering in neighboring provinces, high and high concentration is mainly concentrated in Hunan and neighboring provinces. The results of the least square regression model showed that the per capita years of education, hepatitis B incidence and the proportion of population over 65 years old had an impact on the DALY rate of liver cancer (P<0.05).

The DALY rate of liver cancer in China showed an overall increasing trend. In 2017, the DALY rate of liver cancer in China had a spatial aggregation in the whole country, and the per capita years of education, the incidence of hepatitis B and the proportion of population over 65 years old had an impact on the DALY rate of liver cancer in space.