Smoking Susceptibility and Trends Among Nonsmoking Adolescents: An International Study

Smoking susceptibility is defined as a lack of firm decision against smoking, usually starts in the preparation and/or initiation stages of smoking behavior, and is a strong predictor of smoking experimentation during adolescence. However, the recent global prevalence and trends in smoking susceptibility among adolescents are not well documented. This study assessed global smoking susceptibility and secular trends among nonsmoking adolescents.

Smoking susceptibility was analyzed using the most recent data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey from 129 countries, where the data from each country were drawn from at least 1 survey conducted at any time between 1999 and 2020. Moreover, data from 82 countries were used to assess the average annual rate of change (AARC) in smoking susceptibility over time.

Smoking susceptibility among nonsmoking adolescents was 19.6%. A U-shaped relationship was observed between susceptibility and a country's economic level. Most countries showed no changes in susceptibility over time. Countries with a significant upward trend in susceptibility were primarily high-income and upper middle-income countries in the American region. At the World Health Organization regional level, susceptibility significantly decreased in the European region (AARC: -3.5%; 95% confidence interval, -5.8 to -0.8); however, it significantly increased in the American region (AARC: 2.2%; 95% confidence interval, 1.3-3.1).

Smoking susceptibility remains a serious public health challenge among adolescents worldwide. More public health policies are needed to reduce susceptibility and to control its upward trend in the American region and high-income countries.