Insights from a modelling analysis of COVID-19 vaccination in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Understanding the main determinants of COVID-19 vaccine uptake is critical to increasing vaccine coverage. This is particularly important for COVID-19 vaccine uptake, which has been affected by both demand and supply issues.

To understand the links between vaccine uptake and demand and supply issues in the WHO Eastern Mediterranean and UNICEF Middle East and North Africa regions.

We collected data through 2 rounds of a repeated cross-sectional phone survey from 11 000 individuals across 16 low- and middle-income countries. We used logit modelling to distil the main characteristics of the 4 vaccination categories (vaccinated, unvaccinated but willing, unvaccinated and undecided, and unvaccinated and unwilling) while also considering vaccine availability. We conducted sub-regional analysis to account for differences in level of development between the low- and middle-income countries.

Despite the increase in vaccination coverage from 60.9% at the end of 2021 to 78.3% by August 2022, about 9% were not willing and were not vaccinated during the two rounds of interviews. Our modelling analysis revealed that positive beliefs about safety, effectiveness and side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines were associated with increased odds of being vaccinated or willingness to be vaccinated. Those who did not believe in the safety of the vaccines were less likely to be vaccinated than those who believed in the safety of the vaccines (OR: 0.56; 95% CI: 0.46-0.67). By contrast, negative beliefs about the COVID-19 vaccines increased the probability of being unwilling to be vaccinated.

The results from this research offer useful insights into tackling the supply and demand related barriers to COVID-19 vaccination uptake and provides lessons for future health threats.