Predicting current and future climate suitability for arecanut (Areca catechu L.) in India using ensemble model.
K B Hebbar1, Abhin Sukumar P1, Sanjo Jose V2
1Indian Council of Agricultural Research - Central Plantation Crops Research Institute, Kasaragod, Kerala, India.
Heliyon
|February 29, 2024
Summary
Climate change threatens arecanut cultivation, with models predicting a significant reduction in highly suitable areas by the 2070s. Adaptive strategies are crucial for sustaining arecanut (Areca catechu L.) yields amidst changing climate conditions.
Area of Science:
- Agricultural Science
- Climate Science
- Ecology
Background:
- Climate change poses a significant threat to global agriculture, impacting crop development, physiology, and distribution.
- Arecanut (Areca catechu L.), a long-lived tropical crop, is particularly vulnerable to climate-induced abiotic and biotic stresses.
- Understanding the long-term adaptation strategies of arecanut is essential for ensuring food security and economic stability in tropical regions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To predict the impact of climate change on the suitability of arecanut cultivation across India.
- To identify regions most vulnerable to climate change and assess potential shifts in suitable cultivation areas.
- To inform the development of adaptive strategies for sustainable arecanut production.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the Biomod2 ensemble platform for species distribution modeling.
- Employed 6 ensemble models with 894 occurrence points and 9 climate variables.
- Validated model accuracy using 80%-20% training and validation sets, achieving AUC of 0.943 and TSS of 0.741.
Main Results:
- Projected a significant shift in climate suitability for arecanut from 'very high' and 'high' categories to 'moderate' or 'very low' by the 2050s and 2070s under different Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP 2-4.5 and SSP 5-8.5).
- Identified Karnataka state as highly vulnerable, with increasing areas shifting to 'very low' and 'low' suitability categories.
- Observed a shift in high suitability regions in the northeast from northwest to southwest, indicating potential new cultivation areas.
Conclusions:
- Urgent adaptive strategies are required to mitigate the negative impacts of climate change on arecanut cultivation, particularly in vulnerable regions like Karnataka.
- The study highlights the need for proactive planning and policy interventions to ensure the long-term sustainability of arecanut production.
- Future cultivation of arecanut may be viable in certain northeastern parts of India, while western and southern interior regions require immediate adaptation planning.
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