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A framework for risk matrix design: A case of MASS navigation risk
Cunlong Fan1, Jakub Montewka2, Di Zhang3
1College of Transport & Communications, Shanghai Maritime University, 1550 Haigang Avenue, Shanghai 201306, PR China; School of Transportation and Logistics Engineering, Wuhan University of Technology, 1040 Heping Avenue, Wuhan, Hubei 430063, PR China; Department of Marine Technology, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, 7491 Trondheim, Norway.
This study introduces a new framework for developing risk matrices for emerging technologies like Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS). The fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method enhances risk assessment and management for complex systems.
Area of Science:
- Maritime safety
- Risk assessment methodologies
- Socio-technical systems analysis
Background:
- Risk matrices are vital for risk communication and management in decision-making for novel socio-technical systems.
- Existing literature inadequately addresses risk matrix application for emerging technologies, specifically Maritime Autonomous Surface Ships (MASS).
Observation:
- A novel framework for constructing risk matrices using fuzzy Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed.
- The framework defines a linear function relating risk index to probability and consequence indices, with expert-weighted importance.
- An interval type 2 fuzzy environment is employed for expert assessment and quantification.
Findings:
- A continuous risk diagram is generated and converted into an improvable risk matrix.
- The framework's feasibility was validated by designing a risk matrix for MASS grounding scenarios.
- The proposed approach demonstrated feasibility in practical application.
Implications:
- The developed framework offers new insights for designing effective risk matrices.
- This methodology can significantly improve the management of navigational risks associated with MASS.
- Enhances risk-based decision-making for complex and emerging maritime technologies.
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