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Projections of meteorological drought severity-duration variations based on CMIP6.
Farhad Behzadi1, Saman Javadi2, Hossein Yousefi3
1Department of Water Engineering, Faculty of Agricultural Technology, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
Scientific Reports
|February 29, 2024
Summary
Climate change will intensify drought severity and duration across Iran. Projections show increased temperatures and altered precipitation, with severe droughts expected, particularly in central, eastern, and southeastern regions.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Environmental Science
- Drought Analysis
Background:
- Climate change poses a significant threat to water resources globally.
- Iran is particularly vulnerable to aridification and drought due to its geographical location.
- Understanding future drought patterns is crucial for effective water resource management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the impacts of climate change on drought characteristics in Iran.
- To analyze future drought projections using CMIP6 models and different emission scenarios.
- To identify regions most susceptible to severe and prolonged droughts.
Main Methods:
- Utilized outputs from three Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models: CanESM5, GFDL-ESM4, and IPSL-CM6A-LR.
- Employed Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5) and drought indices (SPI and SPEI).
- Analyzed projected changes in precipitation, temperature, and drought severity and duration.
Main Results:
- Projected increase in average annual precipitation in the distant future (2051-2100) across all regions.
- Significant rise in average minimum and maximum temperatures (up to 4.85°C and 4.9°C, respectively).
- Anticipated severe droughts, with Cluster 5 (SPI) and southeastern Iran (SPEI) facing the longest durations (6 and 20 years, respectively) and highest severity.
Conclusions:
- Climate change is expected to amplify drought severity and extend drought durations in Iran.
- Central, eastern, and southeastern Iran are projected to be the most affected areas.
- These findings highlight the urgent need for adaptive water management strategies to mitigate drought impacts.
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