Ecosystem service mismatches evidence inequalities in urban heat vulnerability

Exposure to heat poses a pressing challenge in cities, with uneven health and environmental impacts across the urban fabric. To assess disparities in heat vulnerability and its environmental justice implications, we model supply-demand mismatches for the ecosystem service (ES) urban temperature regulation. We integrated remote sensing, health, and socio-demographic data with Artificial Intelligence for Environment and Sustainability (ARIES) and geographical information system tools. We computed composite indicators at the census tract level for urban cooling supply, and vulnerability to heat as a measure of demand. We do so in the context of the mid-size city of Vitoria-Gasteiz, Basque Country (Europe). We mapped relative mismatches after identifying and analysed their relationship with socio-demographic and health factors. Our findings show disparities in heat vulnerability, with increased exposure observed among socio-economically disadvantaged communities, the elderly, and people with health issues. Areas associated with higher income levels show lower ES mismatches, indicating higher temperature regulation supply and reduced heat vulnerability. The results point at the need for nature-based heat mitigation interventions that especially focus on the more socio-economically disadvantaged communities.