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  1. Home
  3. Projections Of The Incidence Of Covid-19 In Japan And The Potential Impact Of A Fall 2023 Covid-19 Vaccine.
  1. Home
  3. Projections Of The Incidence Of Covid-19 In Japan And The Potential Impact Of A Fall 2023 Covid-19 Vaccine.

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Projections of the incidence of COVID-19 in Japan and the potential impact of a Fall 2023 COVID-19 vaccine.

Michele Kohli1, Michael Maschio1, Amy Lee1

  • 1Quadrant Health Economics Inc, 92 Cottonwood Crescent, Cambridge, Ontario, Canada.

Vaccine
|March 1, 2024

View abstract on PubMed

Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

A new COVID-19 vaccine adapted for the XBB.1.5 variant could significantly reduce infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in Japan. Vaccinating all adults aged 18 and older is predicted to prevent millions of cases and thousands of deaths.

Keywords:
COVID-19CoronavirusCost-effectivenessJapanSARS-CoV-2Vaccination

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Infectious Disease Modeling
  • Vaccinology

Background:

  • Estimating COVID-19 incidence (infection, hospitalization, death) in Japan from Sept 2023 to Aug 2024.
  • Assessing the potential impact of a Fall 2023 XBB.1.5 monovalent vaccine for adults.
  • Forecasting outcomes based on current epidemiological trends and vaccine characteristics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To project the incidence of symptomatic COVID-19 infections, hospitalizations, and deaths in Japan.
  • To model the impact of a hypothetical XBB.1.5-adapted COVID-19 vaccine on these outcomes.
  • To evaluate the effect of different vaccination strategies (all adults vs. older adults) on disease burden.

Main Methods:

  • Adapted a US-based Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model for the Japanese context.
  • Updated model inputs for vaccination coverage, masking, and social mixing in Japan.
  • Used hypothetical vaccine effectiveness (VE) values based on prior studies of bivalent boosters.

    • Main Results:

    • Without vaccination, an estimated 35.2 million infections, 690,000 hospitalizations, and 62,000 deaths are predicted.
    • Vaccinating all adults (≥18 years) could prevent 7.3 million infections, 275,000 hospitalizations, and 26,000 deaths.
    • Vaccinating only those ≥65 years could prevent 2.9 million infections, 180,000 hospitalizations, and 19,000 deaths.

    Conclusions:

    • A Fall 2023 COVID-19 vaccine is projected to substantially decrease infections, hospitalizations, and deaths.
    • The model highlights the significant public health benefit of widespread vaccination.
    • Sensitivity analyses indicate VE against infection and hospitalization, and VE waning rates are key factors.