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Ecosystem service valuation and multi-scenario simulation in the Ebinur Lake Basin using a coupled GMOP-PLUS model
Hua Tang1, Abudureheman Halike2,3,4, Kaixuan Yao1
1College of Geography and Remote Sensing Sciences, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, 830017, China.
Scientific Reports
|March 1, 2024
Summary
Land use changes in the Ebinur Lake Basin increased ecosystem service value (ESV) from 1990-2020. Future scenarios predict continued increases, especially under ecological protection, highlighting the importance of land use planning for arid regions.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Ecology
- Arid Region Studies
Background:
- The Ebinur Lake Basin, an ecologically sensitive arid region, faces challenges in balancing socioeconomic development with environmental sustainability.
- Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics is crucial for assessing and predicting ecosystem service value (ESV) in such areas.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess historical LULC changes and ESV in the Ebinur Lake Basin from 1990 to 2020.
- To predict future ESV changes under four distinct development scenarios (BAU, RED, ELP, EEB) by 2035.
- To provide scientific support for land use strategies and sustainable development in arid inland river basins.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of LULC data from 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020.
- Coupling of the grey multi-objective optimization model with the patch generation land use simulation (Patch-DREAM) model for future predictions.
- Assessment of ecosystem service value (ESV) based on LULC changes.
Main Results:
- From 1990 to 2020, grassland and unused land dominated the basin; unused land decreased while cultivated land increased.
- Total ESV significantly increased from 18.62 to 67.28 billion yuan between 1990 and 2020, with regulation and support services being primary contributors.
- All four future scenarios (2035) project an increase in cultivated land and a decrease in unused land. The ecological protection (ELP) scenario shows the highest ESV, while rapid economic development (RED) leads to a decrease.
Conclusions:
- Land use changes in the Ebinur Lake Basin have positively impacted overall ESV, driven by shifts towards more cultivated land.
- Future land use scenarios indicate varying impacts on ESV, with ecological protection strategies yielding the most favorable outcomes.
- Optimizing land use allocation is vital for ensuring sustainable socioeconomic and ecological development in arid inland river basins.
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