Quantifying greenhouse gas emissions mitigation potential in China's agricultural plastic greenhouses

To promote sustainable intensification and provide guidance for decisionmakers, we must understand the potential for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in greenhouse cultivation. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate the greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential of agricultural plastic greenhouses in China using a combination of life cycle assessment, data envelopment analysis, and scenario analysis. We found that: (1) In China, the mean mitigation potential for greenhouse gas emission intensity related to the crop production inputs of agricultural plastic greenhouses is 1.67 kt CO₂-eq/km², demonstrating a remarkable mitigation rate of 47 %. This mitigation potential, driven mostly by fertilizer use, exhibited a spatial pattern characterized by high mitigation rates in the southern regions compared to those in the northern regions; (2) in scenarios S1 and S2, the greenhouse gas emission intensity mitigation potential of greenhouse construction materials was 0.645 kt CO₂-eq/km² and 0.968 kt CO₂-eq/km², respectively, with steel being the primary contributor to mitigation; (3) under scenarios S1 and S2, the greenhouse gas emission mitigation rates for China's agricultural plastic greenhouses were 42 % and 48 %, respectively. This study highlights the greenhouse gas emission mitigation potential of China's agricultural plastic greenhouses. To ensure sustainability in plastic greenhouses, emphasis should be placed on optimizing fertilizers and extending the lifespan of construction materials.