Establishment and Evaluation of a Risk Prediction Model for Pathological Escalation of Gastric Low-Grade...

The study aims to explore the risk factors for pathological escalation after endoscopic surgery for gastric low-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (LGIN) and to establish and evaluate a risk prediction model for LGIN. A total of 120 patients diagnosed with gastric LGIN by biopsy and endoscopic submucosal dissection (ESD) between November 2020 and June 2022 were retrospectively analyzed. Gender, age, Helicobacter pylori (HP) infection, lesion size, lesion location, morphology, gastric mucosal congestion, nodules status, surface ulceration and erosion, and ME-observation of all patients were collected and divided into upgraded and non-upgraded groups according to the biopsy and ESD postoperative pathological diagnosis results. Independent risk factors for pathological escalation after ESD surgical treatment were screened by logistic regression analysis, and a risk prediction model was established. Among the 120 patients with gastric LGIN, 49 patients developed postoperative pathological upgrading; the rate of pathological upgrading was 40.83%. Among them, 42 patients were upgraded to high-grade intraepithelial neoplasia (HGIN), 1 case was upgraded to advanced gastric cancer, and 6 cases were upgraded to early gastric carcinoma (EGC). Univariate analysis showed that age, lesion size, gastric mucosal congestion, surface ulcers, and erosion were significantly different between the groups (p < 0.05). Multivariate Logistic regression analysis revealed that age ≥60 years, focal length ≥2 cm, gastric mucosal congestion, and surface ulceration and erosion were independent risk factors for postoperative pathological escalation in patients with gastric LGIN. Final joint probability forecasting model for P = 1/[1 + e^{(26.515-0.161 x β1-0.357 x β2+0.039 x β3-0.269 x β4)}]. Age, lesion size ≥2 cm, gastric mucosal congestion, and lesion surface ulceration and erosion are risk factors for postoperative pathological upgrading in patients with gastric LGIN. The risk prediction model established in this study based on risk factors has predictive value and can provide a scientific reference for the clinical treatment of patients with gastric LGIN.