Impacts of optimal control strategies on the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic spreading dynamics

Shewafera Wondimagegnhu Teklu1

  • 1Department of Mathematics, Natural Science, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia. luelzedo2008@gmail.com.

Scientific Reports
|March 4, 2024
PubMed

Insights

Simultaneous implementation of protection, COVID-19 vaccination, and treatment strategies is most effective for controlling the co-epidemic of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and COVID-19. This combined approach mitigates complex liver infections in co-infected individuals.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Chronic Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) infection complicates COVID-19 outcomes.
  • Co-infection presents significant challenges in managing liver disease.

Purpose of the Study:

  • Investigate optimal control strategies for HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic transmission.
  • Analyze the impact of time-dependent interventions using compartmental modeling.

Main Methods:

  • Qualitative analysis of a compartmental model, including stability analysis and reproduction numbers.
  • Application of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle for optimal control formulation.
  • Numerical simulations to validate model findings and assess control strategy effectiveness.

Main Results:

  • The model demonstrated non-negativity, boundedness, and calculated equilibrium points with proven local stability.
  • Backward bifurcation phenomenon was identified using Center Manifold criteria.
  • Simultaneous application of protection, COVID-19 vaccination, and treatment proved most effective.

Conclusions:

  • A combined strategy of protection, vaccination, and treatment is optimal for controlling HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemics.
  • Mathematical modeling provides insights into managing complex infectious disease co-outbreaks.
  • Timely and integrated interventions are crucial for public health during co-epidemics.

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