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Impacts of optimal control strategies on the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic spreading dynamics
Shewafera Wondimagegnhu Teklu1
1Department of Mathematics, Natural Science, Debre Berhan University, Debre Berhan, Ethiopia. luelzedo2008@gmail.com.
Insights
Simultaneous implementation of protection, COVID-19 vaccination, and treatment strategies is most effective for controlling the co-epidemic of Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) and COVID-19. This combined approach mitigates complex liver infections in co-infected individuals.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- Chronic Hepatitis B Virus (HBV) infection complicates COVID-19 outcomes.
- Co-infection presents significant challenges in managing liver disease.
Purpose of the Study:
- Investigate optimal control strategies for HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic transmission.
- Analyze the impact of time-dependent interventions using compartmental modeling.
Main Methods:
- Qualitative analysis of a compartmental model, including stability analysis and reproduction numbers.
- Application of Pontryagin's Maximum Principle for optimal control formulation.
- Numerical simulations to validate model findings and assess control strategy effectiveness.
Main Results:
- The model demonstrated non-negativity, boundedness, and calculated equilibrium points with proven local stability.
- Backward bifurcation phenomenon was identified using Center Manifold criteria.
- Simultaneous application of protection, COVID-19 vaccination, and treatment proved most effective.
Conclusions:
- A combined strategy of protection, vaccination, and treatment is optimal for controlling HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemics.
- Mathematical modeling provides insights into managing complex infectious disease co-outbreaks.
- Timely and integrated interventions are crucial for public health during co-epidemics.
Abstract:
Different cross-sectional and clinical research studies investigated that chronic HBV infected individuals' co-epidemic with COVID-19 infection will have more complicated liver infection than HBV infected individuals in the absence of COVID-19 infection. The main objective of this study is to investigate the optimal impacts of four time dependent control strategies on the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic transmission using compartmental modeling approach. The qualitative analyses of the model investigated the model solutions non-negativity and boundedness, calculated all the models effective reproduction numbers by applying the next generation operator approach, computed all the models disease-free equilibrium point (s) and endemic equilibrium point (s) and proved their local stability, shown the phenomenon of backward bifurcation by applying the Center Manifold criteria. By applied the Pontryagin's Maximum principle, the study re-formulated and analyzed the co-epidemic model optimal control problem by incorporating four time dependent controlling variables. The study also carried out numerical simulations to verify the model qualitative results and to investigate the optimal impacts of the proposed optimal control strategies. The main finding of the study reveals that implementation of protections, COVID-19 vaccine, and treatment strategies simultaneously is the most effective optimal control strategy to tackle the HBV and COVID-19 co-epidemic spreading in the community.
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