A Randomized Trial Comparing Standard of Care to Bayesian Warfarin Dose Individualization

The quality of warfarin treatment may be improved if management is guided by the use of models based upon pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic theory. A prospective, two-armed, single-blind, randomized controlled trial compared management aided by a web-based dose calculator (NextDose) with standard clinical care. Participants were 240 adults receiving warfarin therapy following cardiac surgery, followed up until the first outpatient appointment at least 3 months after warfarin initiation. We compared the percentage of time spent in the international normalized ratio acceptable range (%TIR) during the first 28 days following warfarin initiation, and %TIR and count of bleeding events over the entire follow-up period. Two hundred thirty-four participants were followed up to day 28 (NextDose: 116 and standard of care: 118), and 228 participants (114 per arm) were followed up to the final study visit. Median %TIR tended to be higher for participants receiving NextDose guided warfarin management during the first 28 days (63 vs. 56%, P = 0.13) and over the entire follow-up period (74 vs. 71%, P = 0.04). The hazard of clinically relevant minor bleeding events was lower for participants in the NextDose arm (hazard ratio: 0.21, P = 0.041). In NextDose, there were 89.3% of proposed doses accepted by prescribers. NextDose guided dose management in cardiac surgery patients requiring warfarin was associated with an increase in %TIR across the full follow-up period and fewer hemorrhagic events. A theory-based, pharmacologically guided approach facilitates higher quality warfarin anticoagulation. An important practical benefit is a reduced requirement for clinical experience of warfarin management.