Quantifying the economic gains associated with COVID-19 vaccination in the Canadian population: A cost-benefit...

Vaccination has been a key part of Canada's coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic response. Although the clinical benefits of vaccination are clear, an understanding of the population-level benefits of vaccination relative to the programmatic costs is of value. The objective of this article is to quantify the economic impact of COVID-19 vaccination in the Canadian population between December 2020 and March 2022.

We conducted a model-based cost-benefit analysis of Canada's COVID-19 vaccination program. We used an epidemiological model to estimate the number of COVID-19 symptomatic cases, hospitalizations, post-COVID condition (PCC) cases, and deaths in the presence and absence of vaccination. Median, lower and upper 95% credible interval (95% CrI) outcome values from 100 model simulations were used to estimate the direct and indirect costs of illness, including the value of health. We used a societal perspective and a 1.5% discount rate.

We estimated that the costs of the vaccination program were far outweighed by the savings associated with averted infections and associated downstream consequences. Vaccination increased the net benefit by CAD $298.1 billion (95% CrI: 27.2-494.6) compared to the no vaccination counterfactual. The largest benefits were due to averted premature mortality, resulting in an estimated $222.0 billion (95% CrI: 31.2-379.0) benefit.

Our model-based economic evaluation provides a retrospective assessment of COVID-19 vaccination during the first 16 months of the program in Canada and suggests that it was welfare-improving, considering the decreased hospitalizations and use of healthcare resources, deaths averted and lower morbidity from conditions such as PCC.