Future fire-smoke PM_2.5 health burden under climate change in Paraguay

Recent years have seen a rise in wildfire and extreme weather activity across the globe, which is projected to keep increasing with climate-induced conditions. Air pollution, especially fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) concentration, is heavily affected by PM_2.5 emissions from wildfire activity. Paraguay has been historically suffering from fires, with an average of 2.3 million hectares burnt per year during the 2003-2021 period. Annual PM_2.5 concentration in Paraguay is 13.2 μg/m³, more than double the recommended by the WHO. We estimate that, historically, almost 40 % of fine air particulates can be attributed to fires. Using a random forest algorithm, we estimate future fire activity and fire related PM_2.5 under different climate change scenarios. With global warming, we calculate that fire activity could increase by up to 120 % by 2100. Annual fire smoke PM_2.5 from fires is expected to increase by 7.7 μg/m³ by 2100. Under these conditions, Paraguay is expected to suffer an increase in 3500 deaths per year attributable to fire smoke PM_2.5 by 2100. We estimate the economic cost of fire smoke-related mortality by 2100 at US $ 5600 million, equivalent to 2.6 % of Paraguay's GDP, excluding other health- and productivity-related impacts on society.