Gestational diabetes and risk of future diabetes in a multi-ethnic population

To investigate ethnic disparities in risk of gestational diabetes-mellitus (GDM) and future diabetes.

A population-based retrospective cohort study of women who underwent a 100-g oral glucose-tolerance-test (oGTT) during pregnancy between 2007 and 2017 in Clalit-Health-Services of the Jerusalem district. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to compare the risk of GDM in Arab versus Jewish women. Further, Cox-regression analysis was used to establish the risk of future diabetes.

A total of 9875 women, 71 % of Jewish ethnicity and 29 % of Arab ethnicity were included. Arab women had a higher incidence of GDM compared to Jewish women (17.3 % vs. 10.6 %, p < 0.001), which persisted after adjusting for age, BMI, and metabolic profile (aOR 1.7; CI 1.48-2.0, P < 0.001). Additionally, Arab ethnicity was associated with an increased risk of future diabetes, even after adjusting for GDM status (aHR 5.9; 95 % CI 3.7-9.4, P < 0.001).

Women of Arab ethnicity have a higher risk for both GDM and future diabetes, a risk that is beyond the initial increased risk associated with GDM. These findings highlight the need for increased focus on preventing diabetes in women of Arab ethnicity, especially those with a history of GDM.