Assessing petrochemical effluent effect on heavy metal pollution in Musa Estuary: A numerical modeling approach

The objective of this study is to assess the effect of petrochemical effluent on heavy metal pollutant in the Musa Estuary ecosystem in the North-western region of the Persian Gulf, through numerical modeling. The outfall of 30 petrochemical plants poses a potential threat to the estuary's seawater and sediment quality, environment, and public health. A combined hydrodynamic and ecologic modeling framework is applied to predict the spatial distribution of BOD and hazardous heavy metals in this estuary. MIKE 21 Flow Model (FM) CFD software is applied to simulate the tidal waves hydrodynamics, next to applying the MIKE ECO Lab models to predict the distribution of BOD and heavy metals in ambient water. The accuracy of the modeling framework is validated against measured water level, current speed, and water quality data. The results reveal that the level of lead concentration corresponds with the national standard, while the BOD, arsenic, molybdenum and vanadium exceed the limit in some areas, particularly in the tidal zone. The optimal outlet locations that effectively meet the standard concentrations of the heavy metals in the ambient water of the estuary are determined. The results confirm that the new outlet configuration corresponds with the standards: 0.198 μg/L for arsenic concentrations, 0.182 μg/L for molybdenum, 1.530 μg/L for vanadium, and 1.132 mg/L for BOD, at maximum. This study contributes to the perception of estuarine dynamics and provides practical implications for estuarine sustainable management and pollution control.