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Sea-surface temperature pattern effects have slowed global warming and biased warming-based constraints on climate
Kyle C Armour1,2, Cristian Proistosescu3,4, Yue Dong5
1Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195.
Summary
Observed global warming rates do not constrain climate sensitivity metrics like equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) as previously thought. CMIP5/6 models fail to replicate observed warming patterns, biasing sensitivity estimates.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Earth System Science
- Atmospheric Physics
Background:
- Observed global warming rates since the 1970s are often used to constrain climate sensitivity metrics.
- Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) and Transient Climate Response (TCR) are key metrics for global climate response to greenhouse gas forcing.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between observed warming rates and climate sensitivity metrics using CMIP5/6 models.
- To assess the impact of model-simulated warming patterns on climate sensitivity constraints.
- To re-evaluate the validity of warming-based constraints on ECS and TCR.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of CMIP5/6 model outputs for warming patterns and climate sensitivity.
- Comparison of model-simulated warming with observed warming patterns.
- Utilizing energy balance models and coupled climate model simulations (CESM1-CAM5) with improved pattern replication.
Main Results:
- CMIP5/6 models exhibit a relationship between warming and climate sensitivity due to similar internal warming patterns, not necessarily reflecting reality.
- Historical simulations in CMIP5/6 models fail to reproduce observed global warming patterns.
- When driven by observed patterns, even high ECS models show low effective climate sensitivity (EffCS), consistent with observed warming rates.
- Correcting for model pattern bias reveals that observed warming is consistent with a wider range of ECS and TCR values.
- Simulations using improved pattern replication (tropospheric wind nudging, Antarctic meltwater) corroborate these findings.
Conclusions:
- Warming-based constraints on ECS and TCR derived from CMIP5/6 models are likely biased low due to the models' inability to simulate observed warming patterns.
- The unique pattern of observed warming has historically slowed global-mean warming, and its future evolution introduces significant uncertainty in climate projections.
- Previous constraints on climate sensitivity may be unreliable, necessitating a re-evaluation based on more accurate pattern simulations.
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