Trends in the Main Residency Match From 2007 to 2020

Background The United States Medical Licensing Exam (USMLE) Step 1 was recently changed from a numerically scored grading system to a pass/fail grading system. Until late 2024, there will be no formal studies about the impact that the grading change will have on the match process. To thoroughly assess the impact that this change will have on the overall match process, it is important to look at what the trends in applicants' objective measures have been in the years before the change. We aim to systematically evaluate the rates of change and mean trend of objective metrics found in residency applications in the main residency match.  Methods Objective medical student data of matched and unmatched applicants were queried from the National Matching Program's Charting Outcomes in the Match Reports for the 2007 to 2020 application cycles. Data were used to create linear regression analyses and statistical tests were performed to evaluate trends over time. Results For matched applicants, there were statistically significant positive trends for the mean number of contiguous ranks (m=0.33, p<0.01), having another non-doctoral graduate degree (m=0.67, p<0.01), membership to Alpha Omega Alpha (AOA) honor society (m=0.22, p<0.01), mean USMLE Step 1 score (m=1.01, p<0.01), mean USMLE Step 2 score (m=1.68, p<0.01), mean number of research experiences (m=0.12, p<0.01), and mean number of abstracts, presentations, and publications (m=0.34, p<0.01). Additionally, there was a statistically significant negative trend for the percentage who graduated from a top 40 National Institutes of Health-funded medical school (m=-0.41, p<0.01). For unmatched applicants, there were statistically significant positive trends for having another non-doctoral graduate degree (m=0.83, p<0.01), mean USMLE Step 1 score (m=1.26, p<0.01), mean USMLE Step 2 score (m=2.27, p<0.01), mean number of research experiences (m=0.13, p<0.01), and mean number of abstracts, presentations, and publications (m=0.33, p<0.01). Conclusion Our study shows that there have been statistically significant increases in almost all objective measures in the residency application. Recent changes to the abstracts, presentations, and publications on the Step 1 scoring system will force almost all residency programs to overhaul their application process and potentially increase reliance on Step 2, research, and other nonobjective factors. For students early in their medical education, emphasis on Step 2 and research will yield increased chances of matching into residency in the future.