Assessing the utility of SoilGrids250 for biogeographic inference of plant populations

Inclusion of edaphic conditions in biogeographical studies typically provides a better fit and deeper understanding of plant distributions. Increased reliance on soil data calls for easily accessible data layers providing continuous soil predictions worldwide. Although SoilGrids provides a potentially useful source of predicted soil data for biogeographic applications, its accuracy for estimating the soil characteristics experienced by individuals in small-scale populations is unclear. We used a biogeographic sampling approach to obtain soil samples from 212 sites across the midwestern and eastern United States, sampling only at sites where there was a population of one of the 22 species in Lobelia sect. Lobelia. We analyzed six physical and chemical characteristics in our samples and compared them with predicted values from SoilGrids. Across all sites and species, soil texture variables (clay, silt, sand) were better predicted by SoilGrids (R ²: .25-.46) than were soil chemistry variables (carbon and nitrogen, R ² ≤ .01; pH, R ²: .19). While SoilGrids predictions rarely matched actual field values for any variable, we were able to recover qualitative patterns relating species means and population-level plant characteristics to soil texture and pH. Rank order of species mean values from SoilGrids and direct measures were much more consistent for soil texture (Spearman r _S = .74-.84; all p < .0001) and pH (r _S = .61, p = .002) than for carbon and nitrogen (p > .35). Within the species L. siphilitica, a significant association, known from field measurements, between soil texture and population sex ratios could be detected using SoilGrids data, but only with large numbers of sites. Our results suggest that modeled soil texture values can be used with caution in biogeographic applications, such as species distribution modeling, but that soil carbon and nitrogen contents are currently unreliable, at least in the region studied here.