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A Market for Snow: Modeling Winter Recreation Patterns Under Current and Future Climate.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Climate change impacts winter recreation. Snowpack declines could reduce ski resort visitation by 40-60%, costing billions annually. This study models economic impacts on mountain communities.

Keywords:
Climate ChangeL83Nonmarket ValuationQ26Q51Q54Recreation DemandZ31

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Economics
  • Climate Science
  • Recreation Management

Background:

  • Mountain communities and snow-enthusiasts rely on winter snowpack.
  • Changing snowpack conditions due to climate change pose risks to winter tourism and recreation.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model the behavioral response of short-term property rentals to snowpack variations.
  • To estimate the economic impact of reduced snowpack on ski resort visitation and willingness to pay.
  • To project future visitation trends under climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

  • Paired 12 million short-term property rental transactions with daily weather, snowpack, and snowfall data.
  • Derived market-specific demand elasticities accounting for substitution effects.
  • Combined downscaled climate projections with visitation models.

Main Results:

  • Predicted reductions in snow-related visitation ranging from -40% to -60%.
  • Estimated annual willingness to pay to avoid snowpack reduction between $1.23 billion (RCP4.5) and $2.05 billion (RCP8.5) by century's end.
  • Visitation reductions are nearly double previous estimates.

Conclusions:

  • Climate change significantly threatens snow-dependent tourism and recreation economies.
  • Economic losses from reduced snowpack are substantial and require proactive adaptation strategies.
  • Future visitation and economic impacts necessitate urgent climate action.