A Market for Snow: Modeling Winter Recreation Patterns Under Current and Future Climate

Area of Science:

• Environmental Economics
• Climate Science
• Recreation Management

Background:

• Mountain communities and snow-enthusiasts rely on winter snowpack.
• Changing snowpack conditions due to climate change pose risks to winter tourism and recreation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the behavioral response of short-term property rentals to snowpack variations.
• To estimate the economic impact of reduced snowpack on ski resort visitation and willingness to pay.
• To project future visitation trends under climate change scenarios.

Main Methods:

• Paired 12 million short-term property rental transactions with daily weather, snowpack, and snowfall data.
• Derived market-specific demand elasticities accounting for substitution effects.
• Combined downscaled climate projections with visitation models.

Main Results:

• Predicted reductions in snow-related visitation ranging from -40% to -60%.
• Estimated annual willingness to pay to avoid snowpack reduction between $1.23 billion (RCP4.5) and $2.05 billion (RCP8.5) by century's end.
• Visitation reductions are nearly double previous estimates.

Conclusions:

• Climate change significantly threatens snow-dependent tourism and recreation economies.
• Economic losses from reduced snowpack are substantial and require proactive adaptation strategies.
• Future visitation and economic impacts necessitate urgent climate action.