A postoperative tumor-specific death prediction model for patients with endometrial cancer: a retrospective study

Endometrial cancer (EC) is an epithelial malignancy occurring in the endometrium, with a 5-year mortality rate of above 10%. However, there is currently a lack of studies exploring the potential of a predictive model of tumor-specific death after surgery in these patients.

From January 2015 to December 2017, data related to 482 patients with EC admitted to the Dushu Lake Hospital Affiliated to Soochow University were analyzed. Patients were divided into death (n=62) and survival (n=420) groups according to whether tumor-specific death occurred at 5 years postoperatively or not. The clinical characteristics of the two groups were compared, and the risk factors for tumor-specific death in patients with EC 5 years after surgery were investigated by logistics regression analysis. A nomogram prediction model was established according to the relevant risk factors.

Tumor size, Ki-67 positive rate, Federation International of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage, and the rate of vascular tumor thrombus between the two groups (P<0.05) were found to be the statistically significant factors. Positive Ki-67, tumor size >3.35 cm, stage III, and vascular tumor thrombus were factors that influenced the tumor-specific death at 5 years after surgery (P<0.05). The predictive model obtained an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves in the training and verification sets of 0.847 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.779-0.916] and 0.886 (95% CI: 0.803-0.969), respectively.

The nomogram prediction model, which was established in this study, was proved to be valuable in predicting tumor-specific death 5 years after the surgery in patients with EC.