Community-science reveals delayed fall migration of waterfowl and spatiotemporal effects of a changing climate

Climate change has well-documented, yet variable, influences on the annual movements of migratory birds. The effects of climate change on fall migration remains understudied compared with spring but appears to be less consistent among species, regions and years. Changes in the pattern and timing of waterfowl migration in particular may result in cascading effects on ecosystem function, and socio-economic and cultural outcomes. We investigated changes in the migration of 15 waterfowl species along a major flyway corridor of continental importance in northeastern North America using 43 years of community-science data. We built spatially- and temporally explicit hierarchical generative additive models for each species and demonstrated that climate, specifically the interaction between minimum temperature and precipitation, significantly influences migration phenology for most species. Certain species' migratory movements responded to specific temperature thresholds (climate migrants) and others reacted more to the interaction of temperature and precipitation (extreme event migrants). There are already significant changes in the fall migration phenology of common waterfowl species with high ecological and economic importance, which may simply increase in the context of a changing climate. If not addressed, climate change could induce mismatches in management, regulations and population surveys which would negatively impact the hunting industry. Our findings highlight the importance of considering species-specific spatiotemporal scales of effect on climate on migration and our methods can be widely adapted to quantify and forecast climate-driven changes in wildlife migration.