The trajectory and transition pattern of intention to practice medicine among medical students in China

There has been a growing concern about the career intentions (whether medical students have the intention to practice medicine) due to the increasingly serious problem of medical students attrition. Career intentions have the potential to promote medical students' career commitment and encourage them to stay in the medical profession. Moreover, a series of dynamic career intentions during medical education can be served as an early guide to the medical students' future career choices (whether medical students finally choose to practice medicine). However, few studies focus on the dynamics of career intentions among medical students. In this study, we utilized data from a large-scale national survey of medical students conducted in China from 2020 to 2022 to curve the trajectory of the intention to practice medicine among medical students during their undergraduate medical education by using multilevel growth model. Furthermore, we applied latent Markov model to estimate the transition matrix of the intention across each academic year during the undergraduate medical education. Our findings revealed a trajectory curve with a peak during the second year in the intention to practice medicine. In addition, we identified three latent states of career intention including "strong intention", "wavering" and "weak intention", and further found two distinct transition patterns between individuals with strong career intentions and those without strong career intentions. The transition patterns play a crucial role in understanding the changes in the trajectory of medical students' intentions and determining the optimal timing for interventions to prevent medical student attrition. Our study offers a comprehensive understanding for the dynamics of the career intention among medical students, which has practical implications for medical educators and institutions to address the issues of medical student attrition.