Multilayered insights: a machine learning approach for personalized prognostic assessment in hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a complex malignancy, and precise prognosis assessment is vital for personalized treatment decisions.

This study aimed to develop a multi-level prognostic risk model for HCC, offering individualized prognosis assessment and treatment guidance.

By utilizing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database, we performed differential gene expression analysis to identify genes associated with survival in HCC patients. The HCC Differential Gene Prognostic Model (HCC-DGPM) was developed through multivariate Cox regression. Clinical indicators were incorporated into the HCC-DGPM using Cox regression, leading to the creation of the HCC Multilevel Prognostic Model (HCC-MLPM). Immune function was evaluated using single-sample Gene Set Enrichment Analysis (ssGSEA), and immune cell infiltration was assessed. Patient responsiveness to immunotherapy was evaluated using the Immunophenoscore (IPS). Clinical drug responsiveness was investigated using drug-related information from the TCGA database. Cox regression, Kaplan-Meier analysis, and trend association tests were conducted.

Seven differentially expressed genes from the TCGA database were used to construct the HCC-DGPM. Additionally, four clinical indicators associated with survival were identified from the SEER database for model adjustment. The adjusted HCC-MLPM showed significantly improved discriminative capacity (AUC=0.819 vs. 0.724). External validation involving 153 HCC patients from the International Cancer Genome Consortium (ICGC) database verified the performance of the HCC-MLPM (AUC=0.776). Significantly, the HCC-MLPM exhibited predictive capacity for patient response to immunotherapy and clinical drug efficacy (P < 0.05).

This study offers comprehensive insights into HCC prognosis and develops predictive models to enhance patient outcomes. The evaluation of immune function, immune cell infiltration, and clinical drug responsiveness enhances our comprehension and management of HCC.