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Intensity and drivers of subtypes interference between seasonal influenza viruses in mainland China: A modeling study
Can Chen1, Mengya Yang1, Yu Wang2
1Department of Emergency Medicine, Second Affiliated Hospital, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, The Key Laboratory of Intelligent Preventive Medicine of Zhejiang Province, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou 310058, China.
Abstract:
Subtype interference has a significant impact on the epidemiological patterns of seasonal influenza viruses (SIVs). We used attributable risk percent [the absolute value of the ratio of the effective reproduction number (Rₑ) of different subtypes minus one] to quantify interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, as well as B/Victoria and B/Yamagata. The interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 was higher in southern China 0.26 (IQR: 0.11-0.46) than in northern China 0.17 (IQR: 0.07-0.24). Similarly, interference intensity between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata was also higher in southern China 0.14 (IQR: 0.07-0.24) than in norther China 0.10 (IQR: 0.04-0.18). High relative humidity significantly increased subtype interference, with the highest relative risk reaching 20.59 (95% CI: 6.12-69.33) in southern China. Southern China exhibited higher levels of subtype interference, particularly between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2. Higher relative humidity has a more pronounced promoting effect on subtype interference.
Insights
Subtype interference impacts seasonal influenza virus (SIV) epidemiology. Southern China shows higher interference between influenza A subtypes and B lineages, exacerbated by increased relative humidity.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Virology
- Public Health
Background:
- Subtype interference significantly influences the epidemiological patterns of seasonal influenza viruses (SIVs).
- Understanding interference dynamics is crucial for effective influenza surveillance and control strategies.
- Geographical and environmental factors may modulate the intensity of SIV subtype interference.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify the interference intensity between major seasonal influenza A (H1N1 and H3N2) and B (Victoria and Yamagata) lineages.
- To investigate geographical variations in subtype interference intensity within China.
- To assess the impact of relative humidity on influenza virus subtype interference.
Main Methods:
- Utilized attributable risk percent, derived from the effective reproduction number (R end{sub}) of different subtypes, to measure interference intensity.
- Compared interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2, and between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata in southern and northern China.
- Analyzed the correlation between relative humidity and the risk of subtype interference.
Main Results:
- Interference intensity between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2 was higher in southern China (0.26) than northern China (0.17).
- Interference intensity between B/Victoria and B/Yamagata was also higher in southern China (0.14) than northern China (0.10).
- High relative humidity significantly increased subtype interference, with the highest relative risk observed in southern China (20.59).
Conclusions:
- Southern China exhibits higher levels of subtype interference, particularly between A/H1N1 and A/H3N2.
- Increased relative humidity is a significant factor promoting influenza virus subtype interference.
- Findings highlight the importance of regional and environmental factors in shaping influenza virus dynamics.
