Spatiotemporal mapping of rice acreage and productivity growth in Bangladesh

Technological advancements have long played crucial roles in rice productivity and food security in Bangladesh. Seasonal variation over time and regional differences in rice production, however, pose a threat to agricultural sustainability but remain unexplored. We performed a spatial-temporal mapping of rice cultivation area, production, and yield from 2006-2007 to 2019-2020 using secondary data for disaggregating 64 districts in Bangladesh. Growth and multivariate approaches were employed to analyze time-series data. Results showed that Mymensingh had the highest rice cultivated area and production, while Bandarban had the lowest. The 14 years highest average rice yield was found in Gopalganj and Dhaka (3.63 tons/ha), while Patuakhali (1.73 tons/ha) had the lowest. For the Aus, Aman, and Boro, the rice cultivation area in 19 districts, 11 districts, and 13 districts declined significantly. The overall rice production increased significantly in most districts. For the Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons, the rice yield in 54, 50, and 37 districts demonstrated a significant upward trend, respectively. The adoption rate of modern varieties has risen dramatically. However, there are notable variances between regions and seasons. A significant increasing trend in Aus (0.007% to 0.521%), Aman (0.004% to 0.039%), and Boro (0.013% to 0.584%) were observed in 28, 34, and 36 districts, respectively, with an increase of 1% adaptation of HYV. Predictions revealed that rice cultivation area and production of Aus, Aman, and Boro seasons will be increased in most of the regions of Bangladesh by 2030. Based on spatiotemporal cluster analysis, the five identified cluster groupings illustrated that clusters lack spatial cohesion and vary greatly seasonally. This suggests increasing rice production by expanding cultivable land, adopting high-yielding varieties, and integrating faster technological advancement in research and extension. The findings will assist scientists in developing region-specific production technologies and policymakers in designing decentral region-specific policies to ensure the future sustainability of rice production.