A prognostic model for SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection: Analyzing a prospective cellular immunity cohort

Following the COVID-19 pandemic, studies have identified several prevalent characteristics, especially related to lymphocyte subsets. However, limited research is available on the focus of this study, namely, the specific memory cell subsets among individuals who received COVID-19 vaccine boosters and subsequently experienced a SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection.

Flow cytometry (FCM) was employed to investigate the early and longitudinal pattern changes of cellular immunity in patients with SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections following COVID-19 vaccine boosters. XGBoost (a machine learning algorithm) was employed to analyze cellular immunity prior to SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough, aiming to establish a prognostic model for SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections.

Following SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection, naïve T cells and T_EMRA subsets increased while the percentage of T_CM and T_EM cells decreased. Naïve and non-switched memory B cells increased while switched and double-negative memory B cells decreased. The XGBoost model achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.78, with an accuracy rate of 81.8 %, a sensitivity of 75 %, and specificity of 85.7 %. TNF-α, CD27^-CD19⁺cells, and T_EMRA subsets were identified as high predictors. An increase in TNF-α, cTfh, double-negative memory B cells, IL-6, IL-10, and IFN-γ prior to SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with enduring clinical symptoms; conversely, an increase in CD3⁺ T cells, CD4⁺ T cells, and IL-2 was associated with clinical with non-enduring clinical symptoms.

SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infection leads to disturbances in cellular immunity. Assessing cellular immunity prior to breakthrough infection serves as a valuable prognostic tool for SARS-CoV-2 infection, which facilitates clinical decision-making.