Predicting the risk of 1-year mortality among patients hospitalized for acute heart failure in China

Area of Science:

• Cardiology
• Clinical Prediction Models

Background:

• Acute heart failure (AHF) poses a significant mortality risk.
• Effective risk stratification is crucial for managing AHF patients post-discharge.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and validate a predictive model for 1-year mortality in hospitalized AHF patients.
• To create a risk score for clinical decision-making and patient stratification.

Main Methods:

• Utilized data from the China Patient-Centred Evaluative Assessment of Cardiac Events Prospective Heart Failure Study.
• Employed a multivariate Cox proportional hazard model for prediction model development and validation.
• Included 4,875 patients hospitalized for AHF across 52 hospitals.

Main Results:

• 17.58% of patients died within 1 year post-discharge.
• A 13-predictor model demonstrated high performance (C-index 0.759-0.761) and outperformed existing scores.
• A point-based risk score stratified patients into low (0-12), intermediate (13-16), and high (≥17) risk groups.

Conclusions:

• A validated, readily available predictor model for 1-year AHF mortality was developed.
• The model and risk score can aid in individual risk stratification.
• This tool has the potential to inform clinical decisions and enhance patient care.