Pulmonary function as a continuum of risk: critical care utilization and survival after allogeneic hematopoietic stem...

Abnormal pre-transplant pulmonary function tests (PFTs) are associated with reduced survival after allogeneic HCT. Existing scoring systems consider risk dichotomously, attributing risk only to those with abnormal lung function. In a multicenter cohort of 1717 allo-HCT recipients, we examined the association between pre-transplant PFT measures and need for ICU admission (120d), frequency of mechanical ventilation (120d) and overall survival (5 y). Predictive models were developed and validated using Cox proportional hazards, incorporating age, FEV₁ (forced expiratory volume in 1-second) and diffusing capacity (DLCO). In univariate analysis, hazard ratios for each outcome (95% CI) were: mechanical ventilation (FEV₁: 0.60 [0.52-0.69], DLCO: 0.69 [0.61-0.77], p < 0.001), ICU admission (FEV₁: 0.74 [0.67-0.82], DLCO: 0.79 [0.72-0.86], p < 0.001) and overall survival (FEV₁: HR 0.87 [0.81-0.94], DLCO: 0.83 [0.77-0.89], p < 0.001). A multivariable Cox model was developed and compared to the HCT-CI Pulmonary score in a validation cohort. This model was better at predicting need for ICU admission and mechanical ventilation, while both models predicted overall survival (p < 0.001). In conclusion, the risk conferred by pre-transplant pulmonary function should be considered in a continuous rather than dichotomous manner. A more granular prognostication system can better inform risk of critical care utilization in the early post-HCT period.