Defining Populations and Predicting Future Suitable Niche Space in the Geographically Disjunct, Narrowly Endemic...

Conservation actions for rare species are often based on estimates of population size and number, which are challenging to capture in natural systems. Instead, many definitions of populations rely on arbitrarily defined distances between occurrences, which is not necessarily biologically meaningful despite having utility from a conservation management perspective. Here, we introduce a case study using the narrowly endemic and highly geographically disjunct leafy prairie-clover (Dalea foliosa), for which we use nuclear microsatellite loci to assess the current delimitations of populations and management units across its entire known range. We model future potential suitable niche space for the species to assess how currently defined populations could fare under predicted changes in climate over the next 50 years. Our results indicate that genetic variation within the species is extremely limited, particularly so in the distal portions of its range (Illinois and Alabama). Within the core of its range (Tennessee), genetic structure is not consistent with populations as currently defined. Our models indicate that predicted suitable niche space may only marginally overlap with the geology associated with this species (limestone glades and dolomite prairies) by 2070. Additional studies are needed to evaluate the extent to which populations are ecologically adapted to local environments and what role this could play in future translocation efforts.