Developing climate change adaptation pathways in the agricultural sector based on robust decision-making approach (case study: Sefidroud Irrigation Network, Iran)
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View abstract on PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.Climate change impacts water resources, threatening agricultural stability. Shifting to Dry-direct seeded rice (D-DSR) irrigation is a robust adaptation strategy, ensuring water resource management under future uncertainties.
Area Of Science
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Engineering
- Climate Change Adaptation
Background
- Climate change introduces significant uncertainties in water resource allocation, impacting agricultural sector stability.
- The Sefidroud dam basin faces existing water deficits, projected to worsen under future climate scenarios.
- Effective adaptation strategies are crucial for maintaining functionality in irrigation and drainage networks.
Purpose Of The Study
- To evaluate the effectiveness of agricultural adaptation strategies under climate change uncertainty.
- To assess two strategies: increased irrigation efficiency (S1) and a shift to Dry-direct seeded rice (D-DSR) irrigation (S2).
- To utilize a decision-making approach incorporating regret and satisfaction indices.
Main Methods
- Basin modeling was performed using WEAP integrated management software (2006-2020).
- Climate change impacts were assessed using RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 emission scenarios (2021-2050).
- Regret and satisfaction approaches were employed to evaluate strategy performance under uncertainty.
Main Results
- Projected decrease in rainfall (3.5-11.8%) and increase in temperatures (0.83-1.62 °C).
- Inflow to Sefidroud dam expected to decrease by 13-28%, exacerbating current deficits.
- Dry-DSR irrigation (S2) demonstrated higher satisfaction indices (0.77 optimistic, 0.67 pessimistic) compared to S1.
Conclusions
- The Dry-DSR irrigation method is a robust strategy for maintaining basin stability amidst climate change uncertainties.
- Adaptation strategies are essential to mitigate projected water shortages in the Sefidroud irrigation network.
- Reallocation of water resources and practical measures are imperative, considering upstream anthropogenic activities.
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