Causal diagramming for assessing human system risk in spaceflight

Area of Science:

• Aerospace Medicine
• Human Factors Engineering
• Risk Management

Background:

• NASA has managed ~30 astronaut health and performance risks for over a decade.
• The Human System Risk Board (HSRB) sets risk posture and updates it based on evidence.
• Astronauts face multiple risks simultaneously, necessitating a holistic approach.

Purpose of the Study:

• To assess causal diagramming (DAGs) for understanding complex spaceflight risks.
• To improve communication and create a shared mental model of risk for HSRB stakeholders.
• To develop a data-driven approach for managing astronaut health risks.

Main Methods:

• Utilized causal diagrams, specifically directed acyclic graphs (DAGs).
• Applied DAGs to visualize the causal flow of spaceflight-induced human system risks.
• Piloted the use of DAGs within the HSRB framework.

Main Results:

• DAGs facilitate a shared understanding of risk causality among stakeholders.
• Enabled the creation of a composite risk network for tracking and management.
• Provided insights into the pilot process and lessons learned.

Conclusions:

• Causal diagramming shows promise for enhancing astronaut risk management.
• Future goals include advancing data-driven risk management strategies.
• The HSRB aims to improve astronaut safety through integrated risk analysis.