Oil spill risk analysis for the NEOM shoreline

Area of Science:

• Marine environmental risk assessment
• Oceanographic modeling and simulation

Background:

• NEOM shoreline is a critical area with high marine traffic, necessitating oil spill risk assessment.
• Understanding the dynamics of oil spills is vital for environmental protection and response planning in the Red Sea region.

Purpose of the Study:

• To conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of potential oil spills originating from various sources near the NEOM shoreline.
• To simulate oil spill evolution and quantify risks in terms of beached oil volume and arrival times.
• To identify dominant oil spill risk sources and inform mitigation strategies for the NEOM coastal area.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the MOHID model driven by high-resolution Red Sea met-ocean data for oil spill simulations.
• Conducted 180 simulations per source over five years, covering different release timings and met-ocean variability.
• Performed detailed shoreline segmentation and inverse analysis to assess cumulative risk and identify critical subregions.

Main Results:

• Simulations revealed significant monthly variations in oil spill arrival times (under a week to over two weeks) and beached oil volume (50% to over 80%).
• Identified specific release source locations posing the highest risk to the NEOM coastline.
• Chaotic circulations, northwest winds (summer), and a dominant cyclonic eddy (winter) influence oil transport dynamics.

Conclusions:

• Results highlight key oil spill risk sources and the severity of potential events along the NEOM shoreline.
• Provides critical time-frame information for deploying effective mitigation and response actions.
• The study offers essential data for environmental management and safety protocols in the NEOM region.