Establishment and validation of a nomogram for subsequent first-cycle live births in patients diagnosed with...

The inability of patients with recurrent implantation failure (RIF) to achieve pregnancy and a live birth after multiple high-quality embryo transfer treatments has been recognized as a major obstacle to successful application of artificial reproductive technologies. The objective of this study was to establish and validate a nomogram for prediction of subsequent first-cycle live births to guide clinical practice in patients diagnosed with RIF.

A total of 538 patients who underwent in vitro fertilization/intracytoplasmic sperm injection treatment and were first diagnosed with RIF at the Reproductive Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University between January 2017 and December 2020 were enrolled. The patients were randomly divided into a training cohort (n=408) and a validation set (n=175) in a ratio of 7:3. A nomogram model was constructed using the training set based on the results of univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses and validated in the validation set.

Age, body mass index, duration of RIF, endometrial thickness, type of embryo transferred, and number of previous biochemical pregnancies were included in the nomogram for prediction of subsequent first-cycle live births in patients diagnosed with RIF. Analysis of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, calibration plots, and decision curve analysis showed that our predictive model for live births had excellent performance.

We have developed and validated a novel predictive model that estimates a woman's chances of having a live birth after a diagnosis of RIF and provides clinicians with a personalized clinical decision-making tool.