Should we ignore SARS-CoV-2 disease?

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Infectious Diseases
• Public Health

Background:

• Current World Health Organization (WHO) reports indicate a decrease in COVID-19 testing and new infection reporting.
• This trend raises concerns about the potential consequences of underestimating severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection.

Purpose of the Study:

• To compare the endemic characteristics of SARS-CoV-2 in 2023 with 2022 data.
• To discuss the implications of reduced COVID-19 surveillance and the ongoing threat of SARS-CoV-2.

Main Methods:

• Utilized WHO-reported data on accumulated cases and deaths from the 10 most infected countries and global figures.
• Calculated average daily cases per capita (DCC), deaths per capita (DDC), and case fatality rates (CFR = DDC/DCC) for two periods in 2023.
• Compared 2023 data with 2022 estimates to identify trends.

Main Results:

• In some countries, 2023 daily death per capita (DDC) values exceeded 2022 limits and surpassed seasonal influenza mortality.
• The case fatality rate (CFR) increased in 2023, indicating SARS-CoV-2 remains a significant threat.
• Despite increased vaccination and booster rates, COVID-19 cases and deaths per capita did not show downward trends in 2022-2023.

Conclusions:

• SARS-CoV-2 infection continues to pose a substantial risk, evidenced by rising CFR and persistent infection/death rates.
• Rapid viral mutations reducing vaccine effectiveness and high rates of reinfection are potential drivers of ongoing transmission.
• Inadequate disease management strategies may also contribute to the continued impact of COVID-19.