Space-specific flux estimation of atmospheric chemicals from point sources to soil

Predicting chemical flux to soil from industrial point sources accurately at a regional scale has been a significant challenge due to high uncertainty in spatial heterogeneity and quantification. To address this challenge, we developed an innovative approach by combining California Air Resources Board Puff (CALPUFF) and mass balance models, leveraging their complementary strengths in quantitative accuracy and spatial precision. Specifically, CALPUFF was used to predict the polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) flux to soil due to industrial sources. Additionally, the spatial distribution coefficient of PAHs flux (e.g., s_i for spatial unit i) was calculated by neural network and combined with the mass balance model to obtain the results of total PAHs fluxes, which were then combined with the results predicted by CALPUFF to effectively estimate the contribution of industrial sources to soil PAHs flux. Taking a petrochemical industry region located in Zhejiang province, China as a case study, results showed the input Phenanthrene (Phe) and Benzo(a)pyrene (BaP) fluxes predicted by CALPUFF were generally lower than those by the mass balance model, with slightly different distribution patterns. CALPUFF results, based on 36 industrial sources, partially represent those of the mass balance model, which includes all sources and pathways. It was suggested that industrial sources contributed 49%-89% and 65%-100% of soil Phe and BaP, respectively across the study area. The average Phe flux from point sources by deposition averaged 2.68 mg m^-2∙a^-1 in 2021, accounting for approximately 60% of the total Phe flux to soil. The average BaP flux from point sources by deposition averaged 0.0755 mg m^-2∙a^-1, accounting for only 0.1%-3.65% of the total BaP flux to soil. Thereby, our approach fills up a gap between the relevance to point sources and the accuracy of deposition quantification in estimating chemical flux from specific point sources to soil at a regional scale.