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Published on: November 10, 2023

How does the SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate change over time? The global evidence from systematic review and

Ying Chen¹, Wenhui Zhu¹, Xinyue Han¹

¹Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China.

BMC Infectious Diseases

|March 22, 2024

Abstract

Background:

There is a significant increase in the number of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection reports in various countries. However, the trend of reinfection rate over time is not clear.

Methods:

We searched PubMed, Web of Science, Medline, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Wanfang for cohort studies, case-control studies, and cross-sectional studies up to March 16, 2023, to conduct a meta-analysis of global SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate. Subgroup analyses were performed for age, country, study type, and study population, and time-varying reinfection rates of SARS-CoV-2 were estimated using meta-regression. The risk of bias was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale and the Joanna Briggs Institute critical appraisal tool.

Result:

A total of 55 studies involving 111,846 cases of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection were included. The pooled SARS-CoV-2 reinfection rate was 0.94% (95% CI: 0.65 -1.35%). In the subgroup analyses, there were statistically significant differences in the pooled reinfection rates by reinfection variant, and study type (P < 0.05). Based on meta-regression, the reinfection rate fluctuated with time.

Conclusion:

Meta-regression analysis found that the overall reinfection rate increased and then decreased over time, followed by a period of plateauing and then a trend of increasing and then decreasing, but the peak of the second wave of reinfection rate was lower than the first wave. SARS-CoV-2 is at risk of reinfection and the Omicron variant has a higher reinfection rate than other currently known variants. The results of this study could help guide public health measures and vaccination strategies in response to the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.

Keywords:

COVID-19 Meta-analysis Meta-regression SARS-CoV-2 Time-varying reinfection rate

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