Changing smoking habits and the occurrence of lung cancer in Sweden-a population analysis

The objective is to estimate the importance of the decrease of smoking habits in Sweden for the occurrence of lung cancer.

The change in smoking habits in the general population was retrieved from surveys and on taxation of sale of cigarettes. We used data from the Swedish Cancer Register on incidence of lung cancer between 1970 and 2021, stratified for sex, age and cell type, and compared the occurrence overtime in ages between 40 and 84 years.

The sale of cigarettes peaked in 1980 to 1800 cigarettes per person and decreased to 600 per person in 2021. The change in incidence rates of squamous cell cancer and other cell types varied over time, sex, and age in a pattern that partly seems to be explained by change in the prevalence of daily smokers. The incidence of adenocarcinoma was similar in men and women 1970-2021 and increased, e.g. for women and men 75-79 years of age from around 20 cases in early 1970s to around 120 cases per 100 000 person-years in the 2020s.

Our data indicate that the risk of lung cancer several years after smoking cessation is less favourable than previously studies have indicated. There is a similar increase in the incidence of adenocarcinoma in men and women which is hard to explain only with changing smoking habits. The change from non-filter to filter cigarettes in the 1960s-1970s may be a contributing factor.