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Distribution reliability in electrical power systems is critical for ensuring an uninterrupted power supply to consumers at minimal cost. According to IEEE Standard Terms, reliability is the probability that a device will function without failure over a specified time period or amount of usage. For electric power distribution, this translates to maintaining continuous power supply and addressing customer concerns over power outages. Several indices, as defined by IEEE Standard 1366-2012, are...
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District heating system's development decarbonization strategy assessment by system dynamics modeling and

Janis Edmunds Daugavietis1, Jelena Ziemele2

  • 1Institute of Microbiology and Biotechnology, University of Latvia, Jelgavas Street 1, Riga, Latvia.

Journal of Environmental Management
|March 24, 2024
PubMed
Summary

This study models District Heating (DH) decarbonization pathways using system dynamics and multi-criteria analysis. It ranks scenarios for transitioning to 4th Generation DH (4GDH) systems, guiding sustainable energy development.

Keywords:
4th generation district heatingDecarbonizationDistrict heating systemMulti-criteria analysisSustainability assessmentTOPSIS

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Area of Science:

  • Energy Systems Engineering
  • Environmental Science
  • Operations Research

Background:

  • District Heating (DH) systems face increasing pressure to decarbonize.
  • Transitioning to sustainable energy sources is crucial for environmental and economic viability.
  • Existing DH models often lack integrated sustainability assessments.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a hybrid model integrating system dynamics and multi-criteria analysis for DH decarbonization.
  • To evaluate various transition strategies towards a 4th Generation DH (4GDH) system.
  • To rank decarbonization pathways based on sustainability indicators for decision-making.

Main Methods:

  • System dynamics modeling to simulate energy, economic, and environmental indicators until 2050.
  • Exploration of four decarbonization strategies for 4GDH systems (RES, waste heat, cogeneration, combined).
  • Multi-criteria analysis using the TOPSIS method to evaluate scenario sustainability.

Main Results:

  • A ranking of DH transition pathways based on comprehensive sustainability scores was established.
  • Scenarios were benchmarked against a carbon-neutral DH system target.
  • The hybrid model provides a quantitative framework for assessing DH decarbonization.

Conclusions:

  • The hybrid model effectively guides decision-makers in selecting optimal DH decarbonization strategies.
  • Integration of renewable energy sources, waste heat, and energy efficiency measures are key for sustainable 4GDH.
  • The study provides a practical framework applicable to real-world DH system development, exemplified by Riga.