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Forest fire risk zoning based on fuzzy logic and analytical network process.

Yi-Yun Ouyang1,2, Zhang-Wen Su1,3, Chun-Hui Li1,2

  • 1College of Forestry, Fujian Agricultural and Forestry University, Fuzhou 350002, China.

Ying Yong Sheng Tai Xue Bao = the Journal of Applied Ecology
|March 24, 2024
PubMed
Summary

Developing accurate forest fire risk maps is crucial for effective prevention and resource allocation. This study introduces a novel multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method, achieving 85.8% accuracy in identifying high-risk areas.

Keywords:
GIS-based multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA)analytical network process (ANP)forest fire risk mappingfuzzy logic

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Area of Science:

  • Environmental Science
  • Forestry
  • Geographic Information Systems (GIS)

Background:

  • Forest fires pose significant threats to human life, property, and ecosystems.
  • High-quality forest fire risk maps are essential for prevention, resource allocation, and decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a novel multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) method for small-scale forest fire risk mapping.
  • To assess and map forest fire risk in Youxi County, Fujian Province.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach integrating geographic information systems (GIS).
  • Employed the analytic network process (ANP) for factor importance analysis and weight assignment.
  • Applied fuzzy logic assessment for sub-standard weight evaluation and ArcGIS for map generation.
  • Validated the generated risk map using satellite fire points.

Main Results:

  • Identified key factors influencing forest fire occurrences in Youxi County.
  • Generated a forest fire risk map indicating severe risk in central and northern regions.
  • The fuzzy ANP model achieved a high accuracy of 85.8% in risk assessment.
  • A considerable proportion of the county was classified as level 4 or higher fire risk.

Conclusions:

  • The novel MCDA method effectively improves the accuracy of small-scale forest fire risk mapping.
  • The findings provide a basis for early fire warning systems and strategic allocation of firefighting resources.
  • The study highlights the severe fire risk in specific regions of Youxi County, necessitating targeted management strategies.