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Pancreatic cancer mortality in South Africa: A case-control study
M L Nhleko1, I Edoka2, E Musenge3
1Division of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Johannesburg, South Africa. mandlakayise.nhleko@gmail.com.
Background:
There are variations in the numbers of pancreatic cancer deaths reported annually in South Africa (SA). Since pancreatic cancer deaths in SA from 1997 to 2016, the number of cases has hugely increased, and reached 23 581 in both sexes. Sex differences are likely to contribute to the variations in the strength of associations between the risk factors and pancreatic cancer mortality.
Objective:
To identify factors associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer mortality in SA.
Methods:
A matched case-control study with 1:1 matching was conducted using data collected by Statistics SA from 1997 to 2016. Controls were randomly selected to be as similar as possible to the cases, and matched by age, sex and year of death. Conditional logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with pancreatic cancer mortality.
Results:
This case-control study comprised a final selection of 23 581 cases (12 171 males and 11 410 females) and 23 581 controls (12 171 males and 11 410 females). A significantly increased risk of pancreatic cancer mortality was observed among males who were managers (odds ratio (OR) 2.99; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.36 - 6.60; p=0.006) and craft and related trade workers (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.14 - 3.14; p=0.013). Elevated risks of pancreatic cancer mortality were also found among females who were managers (OR 6.13; 95% CI 1.32 - 28.52; p=0.021), professionals (OR 2.12; 95% CI 1.24 - 3.63; p=0.006), clerical support workers (OR 3.78; 95% CI 1.79 - 7.98; p=0.001) and elementary occupation workers (OR 1.41; 95% CI 0.99 - 2.00; p=0.059). Smoking was significantly associated with pancreatic cancer mortality in females (OR 1.36; 95% CI 1.02 - 1.82; p=0.039). Working in several occupations was associated with an increased risk of pancreatic cancer mortality in males (OR 1.31; 95% CI 1.01 - 1.71; p=0.045) and females (OR 1.66; 95% CI 1.30 - 2.12; p<0.001).
Conclusion:
Smoking and certain occupations increased the risk of pancreatic cancer mortality. Further research is needed to evaluate the associations between other extrinsic and intrinsic factors and pancreatic cancer mortality.
