Bioenergetic modelling of a marine top predator's responses to changes in prey structure

Determining how animals allocate energy, and how external factors influence this allocation, is crucial to understand species' life history requirements and response to disturbance. This response is driven in part by individuals' energy balance, prey characteristics, foraging behaviour and energy required for essential functions. We developed a bioenergetic model to estimate minimum foraging success rate (FSR), that is, the lowest possible prey capture rate for individuals to obtain the minimum energy intake needed to meet daily metabolic requirements, for female sperm whale (Physeter macrocephalus). The model was based on whales' theoretical energetic requirements using foraging and prey characteristics from animal-borne tags and stomach contents, respectively. We used this model to simulate two prey structure change scenarios: (1) decrease in mean prey size, thus lower prey energy content and (2) decrease in prey size variability, reducing the variability in prey energy content. We estimate the whales need minimum of ~14% FSR to meet their energetic requirements, and energy intake is more sensitive to energy content changes than a decrease in energy variability. To estimate vulnerability to prey structure changes, we evaluated the compensation level required to meet bioenergetic demands. Considering a minimum 14% FSR, whales would need to increase energy intake by 21% (5-35%) and 49% (27-67%) to compensate for a 15% and 30% decrease in energy content, respectively. For a 30% and 50% decrease in energy variability, whales would need to increase energy intake by 13% (0-23%) and 24% (10-35%) to meet energetic demands, respectively. Our model demonstrates how foraging and prey characteristics can be used to estimate impact of changing prey structure in top predator energetics, which can help inform bottom-up effects on marine ecosystems. We showed the importance of considering different FSR in bioenergetics models, as it can have decisive implications on estimates of energy acquired and affect the conclusions about top predator's vulnerability to possible environmental fluctuations.