Pretreatment Circulating HPV16 DNA Viral Load Predicts Risk of Distant Metastasis in Patients with HPV16-Positive...

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Virology
• Molecular Diagnostics

Background:

• Human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA measurement in liquid biopsy offers a safe and repeatable method for cancer biomarker detection.
• Circulating tumor-related HPV16 (ctHPV16) viral load (VL) is a potential biomarker in oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC).

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the prognostic significance of ctHPV16 VL in patients with OPSCC.
• To determine the association of ctHPV16 VL with locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS), metastasis-free survival (MFS), and overall survival (OS).

Main Methods:

• Quantitative PCR (qPCR) was used to measure ctHPV16 VL in 91 ctHPV16-positive OPSCC patients treated with radiotherapy and chemotherapy.
• Survival outcomes (LRFS, MFS, OS) were estimated over 10 years of follow-up.

Main Results:

• 5-year survival rates were 88% (LRFS), 90% (MFS), and 81% (OS).
• Significantly higher ctHPV16 VL was observed in patients who developed distant metastases (DM) (VL 4.09 vs. 3.25, p=0.009).
• Higher ctHPV16 VL independently predicted DM occurrence (HR 2.22, p=0.015) and an ROC cutoff of 3.556 was identified.

Conclusions:

• Elevated pre-treatment ctHPV16 VL is a significant risk factor for DM in OPSCC.
• ctHPV16 VL measurement can aid in treatment stratification for OPSCC patients.