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Income, education, and other poverty-related variables: A journey through Bayesian hierarchical models
Irving Gómez-Méndez1, Chainarong Amornbunchornvej1
1National Electronics and Computer Technology Center (NECTEC), Thailand.
Bayesian hierarchical models offer a flexible approach to poverty analysis, outperforming single or custom policies. Education significantly boosts household income across all Thai regions, potentially mediating regional income disparities.
Area of Science:
- Econometrics
- Statistical Modeling
- Development Economics
Background:
- Poverty alleviation requires tailored policies, but one-size-fits-all approaches are ineffective.
- Area-specific policies face resource limitations and ignore inter-regional dependencies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To apply Bayesian hierarchical models to analyze poverty-related variables in Thailand.
- To compare the performance of Bayesian hierarchical models against complete pooling and no pooling methods.
Main Methods:
- Development and evaluation of Bayesian hierarchical models with increasing complexity.
- Incorporation of variables like household income, education level, and regional data.
- Performance assessment based on variable explanation and model complexity.
Main Results:
- Bayesian hierarchical models demonstrated superior performance compared to complete pooling and no pooling.
- The inclusion of years of education significantly enhanced the model's explanatory power.
- Higher education levels were strongly correlated with increased household income across all regions.
Conclusions:
- Bayesian hierarchical models provide a robust framework for understanding regional poverty dynamics.
- Education plays a crucial role, potentially mediating the impact of region on household income.
- This approach offers valuable insights for policy design in Thailand and other nations.
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