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Modeling the impact of distancing measures on infectious disease spread: a case study of COVID-19 in the Moroccan

Abdelkarim Lamghari1, Dramane Sam Idris Kanté1,2, Aissam Jebrane2

  • 1LAMAI, Faculty of Sciences and Technics, Department of Mathematics, Cadi Ayyad University, Marrakesh 40140, Morocco.

Mathematical Biosciences and Engineering : MBE
|March 29, 2024
PubMed

Insights

Implementing distancing measures within activity locations significantly reduces COVID-19 spread in Morocco. Combining these with restrictions on high-contact individuals offers the most effective reduction in infections.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health Interventions

Background:

  • Understanding the dynamics of infectious disease spread is crucial for effective public health strategies.
  • COVID-19 highlighted the need for nuanced approaches to social distancing beyond simple scalar metrics.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the impact of various distancing measures on COVID-19 transmission in Morocco.
  • To model population interactions and disease spread within a network of activity locations and age groups.

Main Methods:

  • Generated contact matrices using a social force model to represent population interactions.
  • Integrated tailored contact matrices into an SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered) model.
  • Modeled the region as interconnected activity locations to analyze social distancing effects.

Main Results:

  • Intra-activity location distancing measures were more effective than targeting high-contact individuals.
  • Restrictions on high-contact individuals reduced infections by 2%; intra-activity measures reduced infections by 44%.
  • Combining both strategies resulted in a 48% reduction in infections.

Conclusions:

  • Intra-activity location distancing is a highly effective strategy for reducing infectious disease spread.
  • A combined approach of intra-activity distancing and targeting high-contact individuals yields the greatest public health benefit.
  • Network-based modeling provides deeper insights into the spatial and social dynamics of disease transmission.
Keywords:
COVID-19Moroccan social contact patternsSEIR modelcontact matricesdistancing measuresinfectious disease spreadinter-social context flowssocial force model

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